Methodology
Data
Every kick comes from nflverse play-by-play data (the open dataset behind nflfastR), 2017–2025. Accuracy tables use regular-season kicks only, so they line up with official records. Damage Report tables include the playoffs. Anyone can re-run the analysis from the public data.
Expected make rate and FGOE
For each distance, the expected make rate is the league-wide rate on regular-season kicks within two yards of it, 2017–2025, all kickers. Field goals over expected (FGOE) is makes minus the sum of those rates. It adjusts for distance only.
Damage Report
Every game with at least one missed or blocked field goal or extra point. Missed points = 3 per missed field goal + 1 per missed extra point. Tags: missed points > margin of defeat; missed points = margin of defeat (the kicks would have forced OT); ended in a tie; forced OT (tied after regulation with a regulation miss, whether they won anyway or lost); made it closer than needed (won, but in the 4th quarter or OT the opponent was within 8 points when the missed points would have made it a two-score game); high stakes (any of the above in the playoffs). This is simple math: missed points are added back and nothing else changes. Real games don't play out that way, since teams call plays differently when the score changes.
Extra points
Aborted tries (a bad snap with no kick) are excluded. Blocked kicks count as misses, as they do in official stats.
Tables
| FGOE rank | Kicker | FGA | FG% | FG% rank | Avg. distance | Distance rank | FG over expected | FGOE per 100 att. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.Dicker | 138 | 93.5% | 1 | 38.8 | 21 | +11.9 | +8.6 |
| 2 | B.Aubrey | 127 | 88.2% | 7 | 42.2 | 1 | +10.5 | +8.2 |
| 3 | N.Folk | 213 | 90.1% | 2 | 38.8 | 22 | +11.0 | +5.1 |
| 4 | G.Gano | 181 | 89.0% | 4 | 39.9 | 12 | +9.0 | +5.0 |
| 5 | J.Tucker | 281 | 88.6% | 5 | 39.2 | 17 | +13.3 | +4.7 |
| 6 | E.Pineiro | 155 | 89.7% | 3 | 38.7 | 24 | +6.8 | +4.4 |
| 7 | C.Boswell | 284 | 87.7% | 8 | 39.3 | 16 | +9.7 | +3.4 |
| 8 | K.Fairbairn | 291 | 87.6% | 9 | 39.3 | 14 | +8.8 | +3.0 |
| 9 | H.Butker | 284 | 88.4% | 6 | 37.9 | 33 | +7.0 | +2.5 |
| 10 | J.Myers | 283 | 86.2% | 14 | 40.0 | 8 | +6.8 | +2.4 |
| 11 | C.McLaughlin | 186 | 84.9% | 17 | 40.3 | 4 | +3.8 | +2.0 |
| 12 | E.McPherson | 143 | 83.2% | 27 | 41.6 | 2 | +2.6 | +1.8 |
| 13 | M.Prater | 247 | 84.6% | 19 | 40.3 | 6 | +3.9 | +1.6 |
| 14 | D.Carlson | 259 | 86.9% | 12 | 38.2 | 30 | +3.5 | +1.3 |
| 15 | R.Patterson | 103 | 87.4% | 11 | 38.3 | 29 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| 16 | J.Sanders | 221 | 84.6% | 19 | 40.0 | 10 | +2.3 | +1.0 |
| 17 | C.Santos | 210 | 85.7% | 15 | 39.1 | 20 | +2.1 | +1.0 |
| 18 | R.Gould | 184 | 87.5% | 10 | 37.2 | 36 | +1.6 | +0.9 |
| 19 | W.Lutz | 261 | 86.6% | 13 | 38.1 | 32 | +2.2 | +0.8 |
| 20 | M.Gay | 216 | 84.3% | 22 | 39.9 | 11 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 21 | Y.Koo | 217 | 85.3% | 16 | 38.6 | 26 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 22 | G.Zuerlein | 270 | 83.7% | 26 | 39.3 | 15 | -1.5 | -0.6 |
| 23 | D.Hopkins | 217 | 83.9% | 24 | 39.1 | 19 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
| 24 | B.McManus | 280 | 81.8% | 33 | 40.6 | 3 | -2.2 | -0.8 |
| 25 | R.Bullock | 157 | 84.7% | 18 | 38.6 | 25 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| 26 | J.Elliott | 258 | 83.7% | 25 | 39.2 | 18 | -2.7 | -1.0 |
| 27 | J.Slye | 215 | 81.4% | 34 | 40.3 | 5 | -2.4 | -1.1 |
| 28 | T.Bass | 155 | 84.5% | 21 | 38.2 | 31 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| 29 | B.Grupe | 105 | 81.9% | 32 | 40.1 | 7 | -2.0 | -1.9 |
| 30 | M.Badgley | 131 | 83.2% | 28 | 38.6 | 27 | -3.0 | -2.3 |
| 31 | Z.Gonzalez | 142 | 81.0% | 35 | 40.0 | 9 | -3.3 | -2.4 |
| 32 | S.Gostkowski | 106 | 84.0% | 23 | 37.4 | 35 | -2.7 | -2.5 |
| 33 | M.Crosby | 166 | 83.1% | 29 | 38.4 | 28 | -4.6 | -2.8 |
| 34 | G.Joseph | 141 | 82.3% | 31 | 38.7 | 23 | -4.1 | -2.9 |
| 35 | B.Maher | 139 | 79.9% | 36 | 39.7 | 13 | -5.1 | -3.7 |
| 36 | R.Succop | 177 | 82.5% | 30 | 37.4 | 34 | -7.3 | -4.1 |
36 qualifying kickers. Ranked by field goals over expected (FGOE) per 100 attempts. Distance rank 1 = longest average attempt.
Source: [1]
| Season | FGA | FGM | FG% | FG% rank | FGOE | FGOE rank | XPA | XPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 42 | 38 | 90.5% | 9 of 28 | +1.3 | 12 of 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 2018 | 27 | 24 | 88.9% | 10 of 29 | +0.4 | 11 of 29 | 69 | 65 |
| 2019 | 38 | 34 | 89.5% | 6 of 29 | +1.3 | 7 of 29 | 48 | 45 |
| 2020 | 27 | 25 | 92.6% | 8 of 27 | +1.3 | 10 of 27 | 54 | 48 |
| 2021 | 28 | 25 | 89.3% | 10 of 28 | +1.8 | 7 of 28 | 49 | 47 |
| 2022 | 24 | 18 | 75.0% | 29 of 32 | -2.0 | 29 of 32 | 41 | 38 |
| 2023 | 35 | 33 | 94.3% | 4 of 31 | +2.7 | 9 of 31 | 38 | 38 |
| 2024 | 25 | 21 | 84.0% | 19 of 31 | -0.8 | 23 of 31 | 31 | 29 |
| 2025 | 38 | 33 | 86.8% | 13 of 30 | +1.0 | 16 of 30 | 35 | 31 |
Ranks among kickers with at least 20 FGA that season. Per-season FG and PAT totals match ESPN's Butker stats page.
| Distance | Butker FGA | Butker share of FGA | Butker FG% | League share of FGA | League FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30 | 72 | 25.4% | 98.6% | 22.6% | 97.9% |
| 30–39 | 90 | 31.7% | 94.4% | 28.2% | 92.3% |
| 40–49 | 69 | 24.3% | 87.0% | 29.8% | 78.3% |
| 50+ | 53 | 18.7% | 66.0% | 19.4% | 66.9% |
Source: [1]
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Butker's actual FG% | 88.4% |
| Butker's FG% at the league's distance mix | 87.6% |
| League FG% (all other kickers) | 84.5% |
Applies Butker's make rate in each distance bucket to the share of attempts other kickers took from that bucket.
Source: [1]
| Kicker | XPA | XPM | Missed | XP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butker | 393 | 369 | 24 | 93.9% |
| All other kickers | 10640 | 10058 | 582 | 94.5% |
Aborted tries (bad snap, no kick) excluded; blocked kicks count as misses.
Source: [1]
| Category | Games |
|---|---|
| Games with at least one Butker miss | 54 |
| Missed points > margin of defeat | 2 |
| Missed points = margin of defeat | 2 |
| Ended in a tie | 0 |
| Forced OT | 5 |
| Forced OT (lost) | 0 |
| Made it closer than needed | 10 |
| High stakes | 4 |
| Misses with no Damage Report tag | 35 |
A game can carry more than one tag. Counterfactual is simple math: missed points added back, nothing else changed.
Source: [1]
| Season | Cap hit | Cap-hit rank among K | FGOE rank (t-seasons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2,736,525 | 17 of 44 | 29 of 32 |
| 2023 | $5,128,796 | 3 of 38 | 9 of 31 |
| 2024 | $3,388,797 | 16 of 45 | 23 of 31 |
| 2025 | $5,235,000 | 4 of 43 | 16 of 30 |
| 2026 | $7,305,000 | 1 of 36 | — (season in progress) |
Cap hits from Over the Cap's Butker page. Cap-hit rank is his position on Over the Cap's kicker list for that year, sorted by cap number, out of every kicker listed. The current deal is a four-year, $25.6 million extension signed August 7, 2024, with a $6,400,000 APY; Over the Cap ranks it 4 of 36 among kickers. The 2024 cap hit fell because of the extension. FGOE rank is copied from the Butker-by-season table (kickers with 20+ FGA). 2026 is not part of the 2017–2025 snapshot.
Damage Report ledger
Every game where Butker missed at least one kick and the missed points meet a Damage Report rule. Definitions are in the methodology above.
| Date | Game | Misses | Missed pts | Final | Tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-12-16 | 2017 Week 15, vs LAC | FG 52 (Q2) | 3 | KC 30 – LAC 13 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2018-01-06 | 2017 Wild Card, vs TEN | FG 48 (Q3) | 3 | KC 21 – TEN 22 | Missed points > margin of defeat; High stakes |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Week 14, vs BAL | FG 51 (Q2); FG 43 (Q4) | 6 | KC 27 – BAL 24 | Forced OT |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Week 3, vs BAL | PAT (Q2) | 1 | KC 33 – BAL 28 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Week 10, at TEN | PAT (Q3); FG 52 (Q4) | 4 | KC 32 – TEN 35 | Missed points > margin of defeat |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Week 2, at LAC | PAT (Q2) | 1 | KC 23 – LAC 20 | Forced OT |
| 2020-09-28 | 2020 Week 3, at BAL | PAT (Q1); FG 42 (Q2) | 4 | KC 34 – BAL 20 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Week 9, vs CAR | FG 48 (Q3); PAT (Q4) | 4 | KC 33 – CAR 31 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2021-01-17 | 2020 Divisional, vs CLE | PAT (Q1); FG 33 (Q3) | 4 | KC 22 – CLE 17 | Made it closer than needed; High stakes |
| 2022-01-23 | 2021 Divisional, vs BUF | FG 50 (Q2); PAT (Q3) | 4 | KC 42 – BUF 36 | Forced OT; High stakes |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Week 7, at SF | FG 39 (Q2) | 3 | KC 44 – SF 23 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Week 9, vs TEN | PAT (Q2); FG 47 (Q3) | 4 | KC 20 – TEN 17 | Forced OT |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Week 13, at CIN | FG 55 (Q4) | 3 | KC 24 – CIN 27 | Missed points = margin of defeat |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Week 15, at HOU | PAT (Q2); FG 51 (Q4) | 4 | KC 30 – HOU 24 | Forced OT |
| 2023-02-12 | 2022 Super Bowl, vs PHI | FG 42 (Q1) | 3 | KC 38 – PHI 35 | Made it closer than needed; High stakes |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Week 3, at ATL | PAT (Q3) | 1 | KC 22 – ATL 17 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Week 4, at LAC | FG 65 (Q2) | 3 | KC 17 – LAC 10 | Made it closer than needed |
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Week 2, vs PHI | FG 58 (Q1) | 3 | KC 17 – PHI 20 | Missed points = margin of defeat |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Week 3, at NYG | FG 40 (Q2); PAT (Q4) | 4 | KC 22 – NYG 9 | Made it closer than needed |
Quotations
“Do hard things. Never settle for what is easy.”
“I’m beyond blessed with the many talents God has given me”
What the numbers don't say
- Kickers don't choose their attempts; coaches do. A short-attempt diet says as much about the offense as the kicker.
- FGOE adjusts for distance, not for wind, temperature, altitude, snap or hold.
- Playoff samples are small; one kick moves the percentages a lot.
- Damage Report counterfactuals ignore how the game would have changed after a make.
- Butker's reputation outruns the context.
Sources
- nflverse play-by-play data (nflfastR), accessed 2026-09-21.
- ESPN: Harrison Butker stats (per-season cross-check), accessed 2026-09-21.
- Over the Cap: Harrison Butker contract, accessed 2026-09-21.
- Over the Cap: 2022 kicker cap numbers, accessed 2026-09-21.
- Over the Cap: 2023 kicker cap numbers, accessed 2026-09-21.
- Over the Cap: 2024 kicker cap numbers, accessed 2026-09-21.
- Over the Cap: 2025 kicker cap numbers, accessed 2026-09-21.
- Over the Cap: 2026 kicker cap numbers, accessed 2026-09-21.
- TODAY: full transcript of Harrison Butker's 2024 Benedictine College commencement speech, accessed 2026-09-21.
- National Catholic Register: full text of Harrison Butker's Benedictine College commencement address, accessed 2026-09-21.